Well, Gavin Williams turned in his best start of the year and mostly dominated the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. He needed to deposit too many pitches, however, and that’s what cost him from getting the necessary 16 outs for yesterday’s prop bet — by a mere one.

Back into the world of over/unders where I belong, and we’ll uncharacteristically be eyeing tonight’s contest from Yankee Stadium. When you’re largely fishing for low-scoring outcomes, this isn’t a ballpark you’d normally make hay in.

But that will be the case in this series opener between the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees. Going for the road team is Robbie Ray, who scored a winning under bet for us his last time out. Watching him shred the Seattle Mariners, there’s plenty of evidence to support he’s returning to previous Cy Young form.

And remember, it was only four years ago when Ray nabbed baseball’s biggest individual honor for pitchers. That season, he went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while accumulating 248 strikeouts in 193 1/3 innings. In the process, opposing batters mustered only a .210 average off the notoriously tight-pants-wearing southpaw in his 32 starts.

Ray eventually needed Tommy John surgery, which took him out for all but one start of the 2023 campaign before returning late last season. The signs were there that the old Robbie Ray was resurfacing, as he collected 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings and held hitters below the Mendoza Line with a .189 batting average against.

Interestingly, Ray has only amassed six strikeouts through his first two outings — spanning 11 1/3 innings — but he’s crafted some real quality work based on the type of contact he’s inducing. For instance, only 6.3% of batted balls against Ray went for line drives, which is an insanely low percentage. To put that into perspective, that’s only a third of what it was when he won the Cy Young Award (18.9%).

Furthermore, the 12-year veteran is registering 34.4% on balls pulled by the opposition. That mark would be a career best if it remains there and illustrates the difficulty hitters are having trying to hang in the box with Ray on the mound.

The number of punchouts will come, and this evening’s assignment represents a fine opportunity to get that strikeout rate closer to normal. New York is collectively tied for the sixth most in baseball as a team, going down via the whiff once every 3.5 at-bats.